As we rode along on an icebreaker boat with the Maryland Department of Natural Resources (DNR) in January, it was evident that the winter of 2024-2025 was colder and snowier than usual. During our ride around some Annapolis waterways, the temperature was 10 degrees. DNR broke ice in several tributaries of the Chesapeake, reporting ice 2-5 inches thick in some parts of the mid-Bay. January and February also brought multiple snowfalls. Parts of the Eastern Shore saw more than 20 inches of snow this season.
Shivering on the icebreaker, we wondered what impact this notable winter would have on the health of the Chesapeake Bay—good or bad. With the cold weather behind us, environmental advocates are optimistic that the cold temperatures will actually benefit the Bay’s struggling rockfish population.
Striped bass, known on the Chesapeake as rockfish, are already beginning to spawn in the Bay. The Chesapeake Bay Foundation (CBF) says rockfish like cooler water temperatures. CBF points out that historically, cold weather conditions have produced good striped bass years—because reproduction levels are high and young fish can grow into the large rockfish targeted by anglers.
DNR’s Michael Luisi, director of the Tidal & Coastal Management and Science Branch, says cool weather is one variable needed for successful spawning. “When we have the winters where it’s 70 degrees all winter and we never see a snowflake, it’s almost predictable that we won’t have a strong class,” Luisi explains.
But to create the right environment for successful spawning, the cold winter must be followed by a wet spring. Currently there are drought conditions in parts of Maryland, so it remains to be seen whether there will be enough April showers to benefit the rockfish spawn. Luisi says March through May or early June is a critical period in determining whether the eggs and the juvenile fish will survive.
Each year during the summer months, DNR conducts a juvenile index survey to measure striped bass recruitment in Maryland. “We will get a better sense by the end of the summer,” Luisi says. If the survey does show strong recruitment, it will be a much-needed lifeline for rockfish abundance. Positive numbers could play into key coastwide management decisions for next year.
With striped bass recruitment in Maryland far below average for six consecutive years despite tightened catch limits and shorter seasons, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) will be weighing whether to look at even tighter measures to protect the species. The fishery managers could consider changing size limits again and closing more of the season.
Water quality, overfishing, invasive predators like blue catfish, and warming water temperatures due to climate change, could all be playing a role in the rockfish struggle. Because the majority of rockfish are born and raised in the Chesapeake Bay, it’s important to the entire coast that the Bay stock is kept healthy. The Bay serves as spawning grounds for 70 to 90 percent of all striped bass on the East Coast, and they remain in the Bay for 7-8 years afterwards. That’s when they grow to harvestable size for commercial watermen, charter fishing guests and operators, and Bay anglers. Then, they migrate into the Atlantic Ocean and become a target harvest species for states all the way up the East Coast.
Luisi says after six years of poor numbers, the species really needs a good year. “There has to be some positive in the near future or we’re really going to start seeing the ramifications of not having the young fish.”
If this year’s class is strong, it will take 2-3 years for them to be large enough to be harvested. (19” is the minimum size in Maryland right now.) Luisi says fishery management will be important so that the population boost isn’t erased by overfishing. “We can’t take too many of them, or we’re back where we started. That’s where the managers come in,” he tells us.
CBF Virginia Executive Director Chris Moore echoes what Luisi says about careful management amid a potentially good year for juvenile rockfish. “This winter’s weather may lead to more young striped bass this spring, but the long-term climate trends remind us of the likely need for practices to increase the sustainability of the striped bass population,” Moore says.
In addition to looking at whether modest reductions in the harvest would make a measurable difference, Maryland plans to present ASMFC with a proposal to adjust the season closures. Luisi says Maryland’s current back and forth schedule of catch-and-release season, then a canceled spring trophy season, then a mid-summer season shutdown, confuses anglers and isn’t helping those who make their living with rockfish. He is working with stakeholders in all sectors of the harvest as well as environmentalists, trying to agree on a simpler schedule that would help the striped bass industry without expanding the season.
Chesapeake Bay Magazine will monitor these considerations when the ASMFC meets in May. None of the changes possibly being discussed would take effect until 2026.
