The Chesapeake Bay’s blue crab population has slipped to its second lowest level in 35 years, a six-year slump that has fishery scientists searching for answers to the decline in the Bay’s most valuable catch—and a closely watched indicator of the estuary’s health.
The latest dredge survey conducted by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources and Virginia Institute of Marine Science found an estimated 238 million crabs in the Bay, down from 317 million the winter before. Fisheries managers attribute the 25% decline, at least in part, to colder-than-average temperatures last winter that likely killed off many crabs as they slumbered on the bottom.
Even so, this marks the sixth consecutive year of below-average abundance detected by the survey, mostly under less harsh conditions.
Just three years ago, the survey reported an all-time low population of 226 million crabs. That prompted scientists to launch a comprehensive study of the Bay’s crab population and what might explain its sub-par abundance. The results of that stock assessment, due in 2026, are expected to guide future management of the fishery.
The latest survey found decreases across the board in adult and juvenile crabs. The number of spawning-age females dropped from 133 million in 2024 to 108 million this year, a 19% decline. Their abundance is still enough to produce a bountiful crop of offspring, given the right environmental conditions, managers say.
But the number of juvenile crabs found last winter—103 million—was the third lowest on record, the latest in a six-year run of below-average abundance detected. The number of adult male crabs picked up by the latest survey, meanwhile, hit an all-time low of 26 million, a drop of more than 40% from the previous year.
Managers said overfishing did not appear to be a factor. Commercial harvests declined Baywide, they pointed out.
Virginia Marine Resources Commissioner Jamie Green noted that the crab population varies, sometimes widely, from year to year. VMRC’s press release said managers were cautiously optimistic, given the seemingly adequate population of female crabs.
“While this year’s survey shows a decline in overall abundance, Virginia watermen have experienced good catch rates so far this season,” he said.
Mike Luisi, director of fisheries assessment for the Maryland DNR, said managers would consult with watermen and seafood processors soon about whether any changes were warranted in crabbing regulations for the rest of this season, which began April 1. He said he didn’t foresee relaxing the limits DNR imposed in late summer last year on commercial harvests of male crabs, given the survey’s low numbers.
This story first appeared at bayjournal.com on May 23, 2025.
