There’s good news and bad news about the Bay’s beloved blue crab population, in this year’s just-released Blue Crab Advisory Report.
The Chesapeake Bay Stock Assessment Committee, made up of Bay state representatives and scientists as well as federal fisheries scientists, meets every year to review results of the annual Chesapeake Bay blue crab surveys and yearly harvest. They advise fishery managers for the three Chesapeake Bay jurisdictions: Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Virginia Marine Resources Commission, and the Potomac River Fisheries Commission (PRFC).
The Stock Assessment Committee’s 2025 Blue Crab Advisory Report finds that the blue crab population in the Bay is not overfished based on current reference points. However, adult and juvenile crab numbers are near their lowest levels in recent years. And that may mean reference points will change in the years to come.
The Advisory Report takes into account the 2024–25 Winter Dredge Survey, which informs scientists and fishery managers on how healthy the population is and what percentage of the population has been harvested. The latest winter dredge survey, released a month ago, shows the blue crab population at its second lowest level in 35 years, continuing a six-year slump. The overall population dropped from 317 million to 238 million, juveniles dropped from 138 million to 103 million, the male population fell from 46 million to 26 million, and the female population dipped from 133 million to 108 million.
The Stock Assessment Committee is particularly concerned about the female crabs because they are “key to the future of the population.” This year’s numbers are below the “target” number of 196 million, but still above the “threshold” number of 72.5 million.
Meanwhile, the number of female, male, and overall crabs harvested in the past year came in safely below harvest limits. Managers aim for a target harvest of 28% of female crabs each year, with an upper limit of 37%. Last year, only 22% were harvested, well below the target. The male harvest rate was 30%. Only when the rate for males exceeds 34% do managers consider tightening conservation measures.
The overall blue crab harvest in 2024 was 42.5 million pounds, down from the long-term average of 59 million pounds, underscoring the struggle for watermen relying on their crab catch.
The committee is now looking at why population numbers have decreased, if the harvest level is still within the range deemed acceptable. If overfishing is not occurring, what is causing the decline?
One possible hint from the Winter Dredge Survey: the unusually cold winter of 2024-2025. The survey looks at how many blue crabs die each winter from cold water temperatures and low salinity. The “overwintering mortality” was higher than in recent years, at 4% (but still lower than the average of 5.98%, which goes back to 1996).
Scientists are still investigating other possibly factors for the low crab population, including the availability of habitat like marshes and underwater grasses, predators like red drum and blue catfish, and conditions like water temperature, salinity, low-oxygen areas, or wind and tidal currents.
The Stock Assessment Committee recommends Virginia, Maryland, and the PRFC continue to conserve female and juvenile crabs and maintain measures to protect males to ensure a healthy future population.
Virginia fishery managers call this year’s survey results “one piece of a broader conversation.” Jamie Green, commissioner of the Virginia Marine Resources Commission, says, “Our adaptive management approach is designed to account for natural variability in the population, ensuring that we don’t overreact to short-term fluctuations.”
The next step is for scientists to develop an updated benchmark stock assessment. They will take a fresh look at the blue crab population and whether the target or threshold limits need to be adjusted for the future. This benchmark stock assessment will be the first since 2011, and is expected to be finished in early 2026.
Maryland Department of Natural Resources blue crab program manager Mandy Bromilow says, “We are looking forward to seeing the results of the current blue crab benchmark stock assessment to see if it can provide insight into the changing dynamics in the Bay, given that overharvest does not appear to be the primary reason for the continued low abundances documented in recent dredge surveys.”
Meanwhile, the Chesapeake Bay Program and its partneres are at work updating the 2014 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, which carried a 2025 deadline. It is expected to include a revised blue crab outcome.
“As partners revise the Watershed Agreement beyond 2025, the focus will remain on collaborative efforts that support a stable crab fishery while balancing ecological health and the needs of those who depend on it,” said Ronald Owens, executive secretary of the Potomac River Fisheries Commission.
Those revised blue crab outcomes will be open to public comment beginning July 1. Find the most updated guidance on the “Beyond 2025” effort here (where you’ll also find information about the upcoming public comment period).
